Owner: Sara (Finance & Accounting)Last refreshed: July 12, 2026Next refresh: July 14, 2026Cycle: On schedule (2-day)
130
Total Prospects
2 ✓
Tier 1 Re-Confirmed
1 ⇄
Pending (147 Webb Ave)
3
Adds / Re-Adds
2
Confirmed Removals
✅ Both Tier 1 Holdings Rock-Solid — Fox Berry's Removal Re-Confirmed Correct
307 Caney Creek (T1-1, $1,425K) — ✓ ACTIVE, 15th consecutive confirmation. Re-verified across three independent sources (Caza Group, TN Smoky Mtn Realty, RE/MAX), "grossed over $220,000 in 2024" intact, 8BR/8BA, MLS 311169.
3710 Tilda Hilltop (T1-2, $1,389,900) — ✓ ACTIVE. Re-verified via a fresh independent source, "$160K gross for 2025, on track to gross 170K+ in 2026" intact, 6BR/7BA indoor pool, MLS 311326, list date confirmed 6/5/2026 (~5 weeks on market).
2313 Fox Berry Way — removal double-checked, confirmed correct. A second, independent research pass found no live listing anywhere (Weichert's own cached page now reads "no longer available / sold or expired"). No re-add warranted.
🚨 Urgent Actions
⇄ 147 Webb Ave, Ocean Grove ($739K, ex-T2-4) — MOVED TO PENDING. Confirmed via live Coldwell Banker feed (agent Shire Realty/James Whalen). Was the pipeline's only active OG duplex play. Watch for fall-through.
⚠️ 838 Bear Run Way, Sevierville ($799,900, T2 / T1 candidate) — NEW price + standalone-status conflicts, do NOT promote. Independent re-search found the price quoted as $799,900 / $879,900 / $1,049,900 across sources (possible confusion with a neighboring address), and listing language suggests a "shared pool with one other cabin" — raising doubt about whether this is a true standalone STR. Call Annie Maloney / The Maloney Team (865-366-3456) to nail down price, 2025 income, and structure before any further action.
✕ 5004 S Long Beach Blvd, LBI — DATA CORRECTION, not a duplex, no stated income. The "$150,000+ 2026 income" / "beachfront duplex" claims tracked since 7/4 do not hold up against the live listing — it's a single-family home that's "never been rented." Price cut to $2,399,999. Retained as a no-income T4 awareness item only; trace where the original $150K claim came from before reusing it anywhere.
💰 654 Seacliff Dr #4, CSB (T3-4) — $754,000, highest-leverage seller in the pipeline, unchanged this cycle. ~500 DOM, -$30K total since March. Aggressive offer in the $620–640K range still warranted (seller paid $410K in 2021).
⚠️ 2083 Kerr Rd, Sevierville (T2-10) — data conflict, do not treat as re-verified. Independent research surfaced conflicting price/MLS/income figures against what's on file. Needs a direct listing pull before the next Go/No-Go step.
110 Boardwalk Ave, CSB — still unresolved after 2 cycles. Address maps to 3+ conflicting listings; direct fetch still 403'd. Call Port Realty Group (888) 601-6385 directly — aggregator search isn't resolving this. Drop next cycle if still unconfirmed.
🔄 Changes This Refresh (July 10 → July 12 · on schedule, 2-day)
✓ Caney Creek + Tilda Hilltop ACTIVE (2nd confirmation this saga)⇄ 147 Webb Ave → PENDING🆕 93 Heck Ave re-added (T2-4)🆕 +2 new (LBI + Belmar T4)✕ 156 Louisiana Ln confirmed SOLD✕ 5004 S Long Beach Blvd income claim retracted⚠️ 838 Bear Run + Kerr Rd data conflicts
Mixed cycle. Both Tier 1 hold ACTIVE on independent re-verification (Caney Creek 15th straight; Tilda Hilltop confirmed via a fresh source, list date 6/5/26). Fox Berry's removal was double-checked by a second research pass — still no live listing anywhere, confirms last cycle's call was right. NJ: 147 Webb Ave (only active OG duplex play) moved to PENDING; 93 Heck Ave came back — confirmed ACTIVE at $899K and re-enters as T2-4. Two tracked NJ price cuts confirmed: 68 Mt Tabor Way -8.5% to $1,179,000, 123 Main Ave -5.8% to $1,225,000 (DSCR now borderline-passes at the new price). LBI: 5 E Virginia Ave ($2,279,000 true 2-family, quoted $7,300/$3,900-per-week rents) and 1611 River Road, Belmar ($1,590,000 MF, no income) added as new T4 watch items. Data-quality correction: 5004 S Long Beach Blvd is a single-family home with zero stated income, not the beachfront duplex with "$150K+" income tracked since 7/4 — retracted, price also cut to $2,399,999. Smokies: high-bar scan (documented ≥13% yield AND ≤$1M) found nothing new this cycle — market remains saturated at tracked levels. 838 Bear Run Way now has price and standalone-structure conflicts — capped, do not promote. 2083 Kerr Rd (T2-10) flagged for a similar data conflict. CSB: 138 Cape Dunes + 654 Seacliff unchanged; 156 Louisiana Ln confirmed SOLD ($1.33M, dropped from awareness); 107 Barbados Dr re-listed -18.8% to $1,299,000 under a new MLS; 110 Boardwalk Ave still unresolved after 2 cycles. Total 128 → 130 (+3 adds/re-adds, −1 pending).
Re-verified ACTIVE across three independent sources this cycle (Caza Group, TN Smoky Mtn Realty, RE/MAX) — "grossed over $220,000 in 2024" intact. Down ~$356K (within gate). Request 2025 actuals; capital recycling (BRRRR/refi) critical at this price.
6BR/7BA · 4,830 sqft · 2021 · indoor pool · MLS 311326 (dual 1340483) $160K (2025 DOC), on track for $170K+ 2026 · Yield 11.5% @ $160K, 14.4% @ $200K est · DSCR 1.31 ✓ @ $200K
✓ Re-confirmed via an independent source this cycle — list date 6/5/2026 (~5 weeks on market). "$160K Gross 2025, on track 170K+ 2026" intact. Down ~$347K — plan the refi/capital-recycling path before offering. Get 2024 income + confirm 2026 pace.
Renovated standalone two-family, 3BR/2BA, 1,666 sqft · MLS 22610943
No income disclosed · Down ~$224,750
Went PENDING 6/26 and was removed; live Coldwell Banker feed now confirms it's back ACTIVE (agent Jack Green Realty / Jack Green IV), replacing 147 Webb Ave as the pipeline's live OG duplex play. Cleaner two-family profile than most OG comps — EAM operates Ocean Grove (TER/TEH), direct market knowledge applies. No income data yet — market-signal candidate, not DSCR-ready. Action: get rental history + confirm Neptune Twp STR permit.
A genuine true-duplex LBI find with real dollar figures attached — but these are posted weekly rates, not a documented annual gross, so treated as unverified per the Income Verification Protocol until a full-season total is confirmed. Over the size screen regardless. Action: call the listing agent for the actual 2025 booked gross, not just posted rates.
Multi-family, 5BR/4BA, 2,469 sqft · Sackman Realty
No income disclosed · Down ~$397,500 (right at the size threshold)
Belmar primary-market multi-family signal only — tracked the same way as 68 Mt Tabor / 123 Main Ave / 150 Lake Ave (no-income NJ multi-family as market awareness, not a yield play). Action: get rental history + confirm Belmar STR permit before any further movement.
⚠️ Existing Candidates — New Data Conflicts This Cycle
⚠️ ConflictTier 2T1 candidate — on hold
838 Bear Run Way, Sevierville TN
$799,900 (unconfirmed — see note)
8BR/8BA, 3,424 sqft · Annie Maloney Sevierville roster
"$114K gross 2024" DOC (no 2025 figure found) · Yield 14.25% at $799,900 · DSCR 1.31 if price holds
NEW conflicts this cycle: (1) price appears as $799,900 / $879,900 / $1,049,900 across sources — possibly conflated with a nearby 824 Bear Run Way; (2) listing language ("private outdoor pool only shared with one other cabin") suggests a twin/paired-cabin arrangement, not a standalone STR — the exact condition set on this property since 7/10. Do NOT promote to T1 until a direct call resolves both. Action: Annie Maloney / The Maloney Team (865-366-3456).
3BR/4BA, 3,960 sqft, indoor pool · MLS 311213 (on file)
$354,781 documented 2023-25 combined on file · Yield 13.3%
Independent re-search this cycle surfaced conflicting price ($889,900 vs $910,000-implied), three different MLS numbers, and an income figure ($132,714 avg 2023-24 / $100,927 in 2024) that doesn't cleanly match the $354,781 3-year total on file. Not re-verified — needs a direct listing pull before any Go/No-Go step.
✕ Removed / Confirmed Sold This Refresh (July 12 · 2)
Property
Market
Price
Note
147 Webb Ave (ex-T2-4, MLS 22611144)
Ocean Grove NJ
$739,000
Moved to PENDING — confirmed via live Coldwell Banker feed, agent Shire Realty/James Whalen. Was the pipeline's only active OG duplex play. Watch for fall-through; 93 Heck Ave re-entering the grid partially offsets the loss.
156 Louisiana Ln (MLS 320788, awareness item)
Cape San Blas FL
$1,330,000 (sold)
Confirmed SOLD 5/2/2025 — 44 DOM, $1,490,000 → $1,399,000 → $1,330,000 sold. Was never in the active tiers (awareness only); drop from awareness notes going forward.
🟡 Awareness — Data Corrections & Unresolved (data-quality & status)
Property
Market
Price
Note
5004 S Long Beach Blvd (MLS NJOC2040590)
Long Beach Twp (LBI) NJ
$2,399,999 ⬇
Data correction: actually a single-family home ("never been rented," no income figures) — NOT a beachfront duplex with "$150,000+ 2026 income" as tracked since 7/4. Price cut $2,449,999 → $2,399,999 (cumulative from $2,549,000 since 3/18). Retained T4 awareness only — the income narrative that justified tracking it is gone.
107 Barbados Dr (new MLS 326266, was 317949)
Cape San Blas FL
$1,299,000 ⬇
Re-listed under a new MLS at $1,299,000, down from the $1,599,000 tracked (-18.8%). Old MLS page now 404s — looks like an expire-and-relist, not a straight price cut. Still no documented income → awareness only.
110 Boardwalk Ave
Cape San Blas FL
$599K?
Still unresolved after 2 cycles. Address maps to 3+ conflicting listings ($515K / $1.349M / $2.095M) plus a stale 2023 sale ($587K). Direct fetch still 403'd — call Port Realty Group (888) 601-6385 directly; drop next cycle if still unconfirmed.
✓ Tracked Re-Confirmations & Reconciles (no status change)
Property
Tier
Price
Status / Note
654 Seacliff Dr #4, Cape San Blas (MLS 769468)
T3-4
$754,000
✓ Unchanged this cycle — matches last tracked exactly. ~500 DOM, -$30K cumulative since March = highest-leverage seller in pipeline.
138 Cape Dunes Dr, Cape San Blas (MLS 328033)
T3-3
$799,000
✓ Unchanged, ~88 DOM (listed 4/14/2026).
68 Mt Tabor Way, Ocean Grove (MLS 22529528)
T4
$1,179,000 ⬇
⬇ Confirmed -8.5% cut from tracked $1,289,000 via live Coldwell Banker feed (C21/Coastal, Christopher Kavan). 6BD/4BA, legal 3-family.
123 Main Ave, Ocean Grove (MLS 22607072)
T3-28
$1,225,000 ⬇
⬇ Confirmed -5.8% cut from $1,300,000 (reduced 6/24/2026). DSCR now ~1.01 at estimated income — borderline pass, worth a closer look.
18 W 7th St, Barnegat Light (MLS NJOC2042894)
T4
$1,599,000
✓ ACTIVE, unchanged. ~30 DOM (listed 6/12/2026). Grandfathered duplex + in-ground pool.
307 Caney Creek & 3710 Tilda Hilltop
T1-1 / T1-2
—
✓ Both re-confirmed ACTIVE via independent sources this cycle (see Tier 1 above).
👁 Tier 4 — Watch List (60 · full detail in deal-pipeline.md)
Tier 4 watch-list properties tracked in deal-pipeline.md — including this cycle's new 5 E Virginia Ave (LBI true 2-family) and 1611 River Road (Belmar MF), plus the corrected 5004 S Long Beach Blvd entry, 1455 Honey Oaks, 2513 Look Afar View, 1820 Beach Front Dr, 917 Wood Smoke Way, 3661 Buckeye Knob, 3738 Heritage Hills (indoor pool), 1429 Mountain Ash (indoor pool), 3227 White Falcon (high-income indoor pool), 1440 Eagle Cloud, plus the CSB tracked inventory. All retained at last-verified per the blocked-fetch rule where direct fetches 403'd.
🗺 Market Context
Pigeon Forge / Smokies
Both surviving Tier 1 (Caney Creek 15th straight, Tilda Hilltop) re-confirmed via independent sources. High-bar scan (documented ≥13% yield AND ≤$1M) found nothing new this cycle — the market remains saturated at tracked levels; several near-miss candidates checked (12.2%-9.7% yield range) but none cleared both bars. 838 Bear Run Way, last cycle's headline find, now has real price and standalone-structure conflicts — capped, needs a direct call. 2083 Kerr Rd (T2-10) similarly flagged for data conflicts. TN broker rosters (Annie Maloney, TN Smoky Mtn Realty) still reliable, no 403s.
NJ Shore (Belmar / OG / Bradley Beach)
Primary market saw real movement this cycle. 147 Webb Ave (the only active OG duplex play) moved to PENDING — but 93 Heck Ave came back active at $899K to take its place. Two confirmed price cuts: 68 Mt Tabor Way -8.5% to $1,179K, 123 Main Ave -5.8% to $1,225K (DSCR now near breakeven). New Belmar multi-family awareness item: 1611 River Road ($1,590K, no income). Coldwell Banker's live city feeds were the reliable source this cycle (Zillow/Redfin/Homes.com still 403'd).
Cape San Blas / Gulf FL
Quiet but with real housekeeping: 138 Cape Dunes + 654 Seacliff unchanged. 156 Louisiana Ln confirmed SOLD ($1.33M) — off the awareness list. 107 Barbados Dr re-listed -18.8% to $1,299,000 under a new MLS. 110 Boardwalk Ave remains unresolved after 2 full cycles — needs a direct agent call, not more aggregator search. Coldwell Banker remains the reliable CSB source.
LBI
Data-quality catch: 5004 S Long Beach Blvd turned out to be a single-family home with no stated income, not the "$150K+" beachfront duplex tracked since 7/4 — corrected and price cut to $2,399,999. New true-duplex find: 5 E Virginia Ave ($2,279,000, quoted $7,300/$3,900 weekly rents — needs a season-total confirmation). 18 W 7th St Barnegat Light unchanged. Appreciation-overlay market (5%+); Ship Bottom and Surf City searches turned up no addressable qualifying inventory this cycle.