Owner: Sara (Finance & Accounting)Last refreshed: July 16, 2026Next refresh: July 18, 2026Cycle: On schedule (2-day)
137
Total Prospects
2 ✓
Tier 1 Re-Confirmed
3 🔵
OG Duplexes Simultaneously Active
9
New / Re-Added
3
Removed
🔵 HEADLINE — Ocean Grove Duplex Logjam Breaks: All 3 Primary Plays Simultaneously ACTIVE
147 Webb Ave ($779,900) — relisted under new MLS 22611144, up from $749,000 tracked. Re-added as T2-20.
93 Heck Ave ($899,000) — confirmed ACTIVE, no flip this cycle (was 3-for-3 flipping in prior cycles). Re-added as T2-21.
104-106 Mt Tabor Way ($829,000) — confirmed ACTIVE, contradicting an earlier cycle's "went PENDING" call. Re-added as T2-22.
First time this pipeline has tracked all three EAM-primary Ocean Grove duplex targets live at once.
🚨 Urgent Actions
🚨 162 Cape Dunes Dr, CSB (T2-16) — skepticism escalated, do NOT chase without documented actuals. Market-wide CSB average STR revenue is $46,653/yr and top-decile averages $146,352/yr (AirROI 2026) — the claimed "$200,000+ gross 2025" would beat top-decile by ~37%. Listing also no longer appears on Cape San Blas Realty's own direct feed.
🟡 20 W 87th St, LBI (T3-5) — cut again to $1,149,000, now within reach of T2 promotion (~$1.13M threshold). Three cuts, -8% cumulative — the strongest motivated-seller signal in the NJ/LBI book right now.
🔧 Four price reversals need a human check before use in any memo: 123 Main Ave OG back up to $1.3M, 605½ Fletcher Lake Rear back up to $1,147K, 827 13th Ave Belmar up to $1,649K, 5004 S Long Beach Blvd up to $2,549K — all likely re-listings/cache reversions, not confirmed live cuts.
✕ 3028 Hickory Lodge Dr, Sevierville — REMOVED, confirmed CLOSED (off-market) via direct MLS fetch (308200). The unverified "$213K 2024" income question is now moot.
✕ 1611 River Rd, Belmar — REMOVED, definitively resolved as a bad add. The only MLS record for this address is a closed $745,000 sale for a different-looking property; no genuine $1.59M listing was ever found across 2 flagged cycles.
🔄 Changes This Refresh (July 14 → July 16 · on schedule, 2-day)
🔵 3 OG duplexes simultaneously ACTIVE✕ 3028 Hickory Lodge Dr CLOSED✕ 1611 River Rd resolved bad add⇄ 508 Newark Ave → PENDING🆕 +6 new T4s⚠️ 162 Cape Dunes skepticism escalated🔧 4 price reversals (up)⬇️ 20 W 87th St + Overholt Trail cut
Additive cycle, both Tier 1 unchanged. The dominant story is the primary NJ market: 147 Webb Ave, 93 Heck Ave, and 104-106 Mt Tabor Way are all back ACTIVE at once — a first for this pipeline. Three removals: Hickory Lodge Dr closed, 1611 River Rd resolved as a bad add after 2 flagged cycles, and 508 Newark Ave went pending. Six new Tier 4 adds spread across OG, LBI, and CSB (including a corrected re-add of 110 Boardwalk Ave, wrongly dropped last cycle). Several tracked prices reversed upward this cycle (123 Main Ave, Fletcher Lake Rear, 827 13th Ave, 5004 S Long Beach Blvd) — flagged for a human check rather than taken at face value. 162 Cape Dunes Dr's income claim now looks weaker, not stronger, against fresh CSB market-average data. Total 131 → 137.
Re-verified ACTIVE this cycle, price unchanged. No 2025/2026 figure surfaced despite a direct search — still only the 2024 figure. Note: the income phrasing ("grossed over $X... with AvantStay") is PM-reported marketing language, not literally labeled "documented" — same pattern the now-closed Hickory Lodge listing used, worth keeping in mind on confidence.
6BR/7BA · 4,830 sqft · 2021 · indoor pool · MLS 311326 (dual 1340483) $160K (2025 DOC), on track for $170K+ 2026 · Yield 14.3% @ $200K est · DSCR 1.31 ✓ @ $200K
Re-confirmed ACTIVE, price unchanged. No 2024 figure found. The "$162,794 Jan-Aug 2026 booked" figure does NOT appear anywhere in current listing copy despite a direct search this cycle — treat as unsubstantiated, not merely stale.
🔵 Ocean Grove Duplex Re-Adds — All 3 Simultaneously Active (July 16)
Re-AddedTier 2Active
147 Webb Ave, Ocean Grove NJ
$779,900 (relisted, was $749,000)
Duplex, 4BD/2BA, two side-by-side metered units · new MLS 22611144
Prior income basis $108K (NOT re-verified this cycle) · Est. yield 13.85% if basis holds
Relisted at a higher price than last tracked — the earlier cut evidently didn't survive relisting. James Whalen/Shire Realty unchanged. Action: confirm current income basis post-relist before underwriting.
3BD/3BA, 1,666 sqft · Jack Green Realty
3rd flip in 3 cycles — this cycle holds ACTIVE
Given the flip history (PENDING→ACTIVE→PENDING→ACTIVE), treat any offer window as narrow — re-confirm status same-day before committing diligence time.
Contradicts an earlier cycle's "went PENDING" call — either reverted to active or that call was premature. Confirm genuinely active (not a stale MLS re-index) before allocating diligence time.
3-family Victorian, built 1904, 18 DOM. In-place LTR rents ~$37,200/yr combined on 2 rental units (one source states this plainly, another frames it as marketing-only "potential" — conflicting characterization). LTR income, not STR — doesn't clear any STR yield threshold as-is. Track as an OG multi-family with conversion upside.
224 5th St #A (MLS NJOC2035020)
Beach Haven NJ (LBI)
$1,990,000
5BD/3BA, steps from lifeguarded beach, condo-conversion-ready. No documented income — marketing copy only. No income + >$1M caps at T4.
6 W 11th St (MLS NJOC2035292)
Barnegat Light NJ (LBI)
$1,999,999
5BD/4BA, zoned duplex/convertible, large 14,527 sqft lot. No income data. ~1yr DOM = motivated-seller signal.
500 Park Place Ave (MLS 22607331)
Bradley Beach NJ
$1,725,000
True 3-family (main + 2-unit rear building), "all 3 units currently rented" but no rent-roll figures disclosed. EAM-operational Bradley Beach market relevance.
149 Boardwalk Ave (MLS 320661)
Cape San Blas FL
$599,900
Cut $25K from $624,900. Confirmed real & distinct from 110 Boardwalk Ave via 6+ independent sources. No income data.
110 Boardwalk Ave 🔵 re-added
Cape San Blas FL
$515,000
Last cycle's drop (called a "transposition" of 149 Boardwalk) was wrong — this is a real, distinct listing, "seller motivated," priced BELOW its own 2023 sale price ($587,000). No income data, but the below-prior-sale pricing is a genuine signal.
✕ Removed This Refresh (July 16 · 3)
Property
Market
Price
Reason
3028 Hickory Lodge Dr (ex-T2-19, MLS 308200)
Sevierville TN
$1,412,000
Confirmed CLOSED (off-market) via direct MLS fetch. The "$213K 2024" unverified-label income question is now moot.
1611 River Rd
Belmar NJ
$1,590,000 (never confirmed)
Definitively resolved as a bad add. The only MLS record for this address (22500931) is a closed $745,000 sale for a different-looking property — no genuine listing at $1.59M ever found across 2 flagged cycles.
508 Newark Ave
Bradley Beach NJ
$1,250,000
Went PENDING (EXP Realty/Jesse Decker).
🔧 Price Reversals & Data-Quality Flags — Verify Before Use
Property
Tier
Price
Note
123 Main Ave, Ocean Grove
T3-28
$1,300,000 ⬆
Reverted up from the tracked $1,225,000 cut. Confirm current ask with Anna Safonova/NJ Realty Pros before use.
605½ Fletcher Lake Ave (Rear), Bradley Beach
T3-21
$1,147,000 ⬆
Reverted up from the tracked $1,049,000 cut, back near original pre-cut price. Confirm with Coldwell Banker.
827 13th Ave, Belmar
T4
$1,649,000 ⬆
Up from tracked $1,590,000 (though down from an interim $1,699,000 peak). Now over the size threshold.
5004 S Long Beach Blvd, Holgate (LBI)
T4
$2,549,000 ⬆
Price cuts reversed — back to original ask. No income data (confirmed SFH, not duplex, 7/12).
20 W 87th St, Long Beach Twp (LBI)
T3-5
$1,149,000 ⬇
Cut again, cumulative -8% from original — approaching T2 promotion threshold (~$1.13M).
2644 Overholt Trail, Sevierville
T2-17
$584,500 ⬇
Minor cut from $589,900, confirmed via two independent sources.
150 Lake Ave, Ocean Grove
T4
$1,800,000
Two different MLS#s (22533340 vs tracked 22612117) for what appears to be the same listing — unreconciled.
125 Parkside Cir, CSB
T4
$340K–$515K (unresolved)
THREE different MLS#s and prices surfaced this cycle for the same address — low confidence, needs a direct agent call.
👁 Tier 4 — Watch List (64 · full detail in deal-pipeline.md)
Tier 4 watch-list properties tracked in deal-pipeline.md — 6 new this cycle (81 Mount Zion Way, 224 5th St #A, 6 W 11th St, 500 Park Place Ave, 149 Boardwalk Ave, 110 Boardwalk Ave re-add). All other Tier 4 inventory retained at last-verified per the blocked-fetch rule where direct fetches 403'd this cycle (Redfin, Zillow city pages).
🗺 Market Context
Pigeon Forge / Smokies
Both Tier 1 re-confirmed ACTIVE, unchanged. 3028 Hickory Lodge Dr closed — a cautionary tale on unlabeled "grossed over $X" income phrasing shared with the still-active Caney Creek listing. No new listing cleared the 13%-yield/$1M high bar this cycle across 6 broker sources searched. Overholt Trail ticked down slightly to $584,500. TN broker rosters (Annie Maloney, TN Smoky Mtn Realty) remain the most reliable direct-fetch sources.
NJ Shore (Belmar / OG / Bradley Beach)
Primary market breaks its logjam: all 3 tracked Ocean Grove duplex plays (147 Webb, 93 Heck, 104-106 Mt Tabor) are simultaneously ACTIVE for the first time. Two price reversals (123 Main Ave, Fletcher Lake Rear) and one at Belmar (827 13th Ave) need human confirmation. 508 Newark Ave went pending; 1611 River Rd definitively resolved as a bad add and removed. New OG multi-family find (81 Mount Zion Way) carries LTR, not STR, income.
Cape San Blas / Gulf FL
138 Cape Dunes + 654 Seacliff both re-confirmed active, unchanged (DOM climbing on both). 162 Cape Dunes Dr's "$200K+" claim is now weaker against fresh CSB market-average data (avg $46,653/yr, top-decile $146,352/yr) — do not chase without documented actuals. 110 Boardwalk Ave corrected back in as a real listing; 149 Boardwalk Ave confirmed as a separate, genuine listing. 125 Parkside Cir now has 3 conflicting MLS#s/prices — needs a direct call.
LBI
20 W 87th St cut a third time (-8% cumulative) and is closing in on T2 promotion — the strongest LBI signal this cycle. 5004 S Long Beach Blvd's price reversed back up. Two new LBI T4s added (224 5th St #A, 6 W 11th St), both no-income/>$1M-cap. 4505-4507 Ocean Blvd and 5 E Virginia Ave unchanged, still tracked as awareness only (over the size threshold).