Owner: Sara (Finance & Accounting)Last refreshed: July 14, 2026Next refresh: July 16, 2026Cycle: On schedule (2-day)
131
Total Prospects
2 ✓
Tier 1 Re-Confirmed
2 ⇄
Pending (93 Heck + 147 Webb)
3
New Adds
2
Conflicts Resolved
✅ Two Long-Standing Data Conflicts Fully Resolved (Not Removed)
838 Bear Run Way, Sevierville ($799,900) — price CONFIRMED, standalone-status CONFIRMED NEGATIVE. Two independent direct fetches pin the price at $799,900 (MLS 308400); the listing itself states the pool is "shared with one other cabin" — this is a paired-cabin arrangement, not standalone. Stays capped T2 permanently; not a pending question anymore.
2083 Kerr Road, Sevierville ($889,900) — MLS corrected, income RE-CONFIRMED. The tracked MLS (311213) belongs to a different property; corrected to 311229. The $354,781 (2023-25 documented) figure is confirmed correct via Annie Maloney (primary broker) — the competing $132,714/$910K figures traced to a stale, mismatched aggregator listing.
307 Caney Creek + 3710 Tilda Hilltop — both re-verified ACTIVE. Tilda Hilltop's price corrected to $1,389,900 (was shown $1,399,000); the specific "$162,794 Jan-Aug 2026" figure could not be re-verified this cycle — not retracted, just unconfirmed.
🚨 Urgent Actions
⇄ 93 Heck Ave, Ocean Grove ($899K, ex-T2-4) — FLIPPED BACK TO PENDING. 3rd status flip in 3 cycles (PENDING 6/26 → ACTIVE 7/12 → PENDING 7/14). Combined with 147 Webb Ave (also pending), the pipeline currently has zero confirmed-active OG duplex plays — the primary EAM market has gone quiet.
🆕 3028 Hickory Lodge Dr, Sevierville ($1,412,000) — T1-level yield math, needs verification. "Grossed over $213,000 in 2024" would clear 15.1% yield and DSCR 1.38, but no MLS# was captured and the income label wasn't explicitly "documented." Call Annie Maloney (865-366-3456) before relying on this figure.
⚠️ 1611 River Rd, Belmar ($1,590,000) — the only MLS record found for this address shows a SOLD closing at $745,000, not a match. Retained per the flag-don't-delete rule, but do not quote this listing to Cody as confirmed until a direct call resolves it.
✕ 110 Boardwalk Ave, CSB — DROPPED after 2 full cycles unresolved. No clean source ever confirmed an active $599K listing at this address. Likely a transposition — 149 Boardwalk Ave ($599,900, MLS 320661) is a plausible replacement but needs its own confirmation before re-adding.
💰 654 Seacliff Dr #4, CSB (T3-4) — $754,000, highest-leverage seller in the pipeline, unchanged this cycle. ~525 DOM, -$30K total since March. Aggressive offer in the $620–640K range still warranted (seller paid $410K in 2021).
🔄 Changes This Refresh (July 12 → July 14 · on schedule, 2-day)
✓ Caney Creek + Tilda Hilltop ACTIVE✓ 838 Bear Run + 2083 Kerr Rd conflicts RESOLVED⇄ 93 Heck Ave → PENDING (3rd flip)🆕 +3 new (2 Smokies + 1 LBI)✕ 110 Boardwalk Ave dropped⚠️ 1611 River Rd — sold-record mismatch
Mixed cycle. Both Tier 1 hold ACTIVE (Tilda Hilltop's price corrected to $1,389,900). The cycle's real work was resolution, not discovery: 838 Bear Run Way's price and standalone-status conflicts are both settled (confirmed non-standalone, permanently capped T2), and 2083 Kerr Road's MLS/income conflict is settled (MLS corrected to 311229, $354,781 3-yr documented figure confirmed correct). NJ: 93 Heck Ave flipped back to PENDING for the 3rd time in 3 cycles — the pipeline now has no confirmed-active Ocean Grove duplex play. 1611 River Road, Belmar is flagged, not removed: the only MLS record found for the address shows a SOLD closing that doesn't match the tracked listing. Smokies: two new finds via Annie Maloney's 6BR+ roster — 3028 Hickory Lodge Dr ($1,412K, "$213K 2024" claimed, T1-yield math but unverified label, capped T2) and 3328 Smoky Ridge Way ($1,425K, $155,891/2024 documented, T3). LBI: 4505-4507 Ocean Blvd, Beach Haven — a genuine oceanfront true two-family with $204,190 (2025 documented) income, but far over the size threshold; tracked as awareness only. CSB: 138 Cape Dunes + 654 Seacliff unchanged; 110 Boardwalk Ave dropped after 2 cycles with no clean source (likely address transposition — 149 Boardwalk Ave flagged as a lead). Total 130 → 131.
Re-verified ACTIVE across three independent sources this cycle (Caza Group, TN Smoky Mtn Realty, RE/MAX) — "grossed over $220,000 in 2024" intact. Down ~$356K (within the size threshold). Request 2025 actuals; a refinance/recycling plan is critical at this price.
6BR/7BA · 4,830 sqft · 2021 · indoor pool · MLS 311326 (dual 1340483) $160K (2025 DOC), on track for $170K+ 2026 · Yield 11.5% @ $160K, 14.4% @ $200K est · DSCR 1.31 ✓ @ $200K
✓ Re-confirmed ACTIVE via two independent sources this cycle; price corrected to $1,389,900. "$160K Gross 2025, on track 170K+ 2026" intact — but the specific "$162,794 Jan-Aug 2026 booked" figure could not be re-verified this cycle (unconfirmed, not retracted). Down ~$347K — plan the refinance path before offering.
8BD/6BA · Annie Maloney Sevierville 6BR+ roster · no MLS# captured yet
"Grossed over $213,000 in 2024" (claimed) · Yield 15.1% if real · DSCR 1.38 if real
T1-level yield math on paper, but the income phrase wasn't explicitly labeled "documented" and no MLS# was captured this cycle — capped T2 per the Income Verification Protocol until confirmed. Action: call Annie Maloney (865-366-3456) for the MLS#, verification basis, and 2025 numbers. If it holds up, best find in weeks.
Clean documented single-year figure, but DSCR is right at breakeven. Down ~$356K, within the size threshold. Action: get MLS#, 2025 actuals, 2026 YTD from Annie Maloney. Path to T2: income to ~$165K or price toward ~$1.35M.
Two oceanfront true two-family homes, one 100'x100' lot, 100' beach frontage · MLS NJOC2033738 "$204,190 gross 2025" (DOCUMENTED, avg 2022-24: $177,000) · Down ~$1.25M+
Genuinely rare LBI inventory — real oceanfront true two-family with documented actuals, not marketing copy. Massively over the size threshold at either price; tracked as awareness/comp-benchmark only, same treatment as 150 Lake Ave. Action: none at current price; watch for a partnership/refinance structure or a steep cut.
Both open conflicts from 7/10-7/12 resolved this cycle: price confirmed $799,900 via two independent fetches (the $879,900/$1,049,900 figures dropped — unsupported or low-confidence). The listing itself confirms the pool is "shared with one other cabin" — CONFIRMED non-standalone. Permanently capped T2; this is now a structural fact, not a pending question.
MLS corrected — 311213 actually belongs to a different property (1418 School House Gap Rd). The $354,781 3-year documented figure is re-confirmed as correct via Annie Maloney (primary broker, two independent fetches). The competing $132,714/$910K figures traced to a stale, mismatched homes.com/aggregator listing — disregard.
Flipped back to PENDING per Redfin — 3rd flip in 3 cycles (PENDING 6/26 → ACTIVE 7/12 → PENDING 7/14). With 147 Webb Ave also pending, the pipeline has zero confirmed-active OG duplex plays this cycle.
110 Boardwalk Ave (ex-T3-2)
Cape San Blas FL
$599,000
Dropped — no clean source after 2 full cycles. Every attempt resolved to a 2023 sale record, aggregator address-bleed, or 404s. Likely an address transposition — 149 Boardwalk Ave (MLS 320661, $599,900) is a plausible replacement, flagged for next-cycle confirmation, not yet re-added.
🟡 Awareness — Flagged, Not Removed
Property
Market
Price
Note
1611 River Road (Sackman Realty)
Belmar NJ
$1,590,000 (unconfirmed)
Sold-record mismatch found this cycle. The only MLS record found for this address (22500931) shows a SOLD closing 6/5/2025 at $745,000 — doesn't match the tracked $1.59M listing at all. Retained per the flag-don't-delete rule; do not quote as confirmed until a direct call to Sackman Realty/Coldwell Banker Belmar resolves it.
123 Main Ave (MLS 22607072)
Ocean Grove NJ
$1,225,000
A search pass this cycle floated $1,300,000 (the pre-cut original price) — low confidence, direct fetch 403'd, likely stale search-index data rather than a real re-increase. Retained at $1,225,000 (last directly confirmed 7/12).
✓ Tracked Re-Confirmations & Reconciles (no status change)
Property
Tier
Price
Status / Note
654 Seacliff Dr #4, Cape San Blas (MLS 769468)
T3-4
$754,000
✓ Unchanged this cycle — matches last tracked exactly. ~500 DOM, -$30K cumulative since March = highest-leverage seller in pipeline.
138 Cape Dunes Dr, Cape San Blas (MLS 328033)
T3-3
$799,000
✓ Unchanged, ~88 DOM (listed 4/14/2026).
68 Mt Tabor Way, Ocean Grove (MLS 22529528)
T4
$1,179,000 ⬇
⬇ Confirmed -8.5% cut from tracked $1,289,000 via live Coldwell Banker feed (C21/Coastal, Christopher Kavan). 6BD/4BA, legal 3-family.
123 Main Ave, Ocean Grove (MLS 22607072)
T3-28
$1,225,000 ⬇
⬇ Confirmed -5.8% cut from $1,300,000 (reduced 6/24/2026). DSCR now ~1.01 at estimated income — borderline pass, worth a closer look.
18 W 7th St, Barnegat Light (MLS NJOC2042894)
T4
$1,599,000
✓ ACTIVE, unchanged.
307 Caney Creek & 3710 Tilda Hilltop
T1-1 / T1-2
—
✓ Both re-confirmed ACTIVE via independent sources this cycle (see Tier 1 above).
👁 Tier 4 — Watch List (59 · full detail in deal-pipeline.md)
Tier 4 watch-list properties tracked in deal-pipeline.md — including this cycle's new 4505-4507 Ocean Blvd (Beach Haven LBI, $204K/2025 documented, over the size threshold), plus 5 E Virginia Ave, 1611 River Road (flagged, see Awareness above), 5004 S Long Beach Blvd, 1455 Honey Oaks, 2513 Look Afar View, 1820 Beach Front Dr, 917 Wood Smoke Way, 3661 Buckeye Knob, 3738 Heritage Hills (indoor pool), 1429 Mountain Ash (indoor pool), 3227 White Falcon (high-income indoor pool), 1440 Eagle Cloud, plus the CSB tracked inventory. All retained at last-verified per the blocked-fetch rule where direct fetches 403'd.
🗺 Market Context
Pigeon Forge / Smokies
Both surviving Tier 1 (Caney Creek, Tilda Hilltop) re-confirmed via independent sources; Tilda's price corrected to $1,389,900. The cycle's real work was resolution: 838 Bear Run Way and 2083 Kerr Rd, both flagged with data conflicts last cycle, are now fully resolved (confirmed non-standalone / MLS corrected + income re-confirmed). Two new documented-income finds via Annie Maloney's 6BR+ roster: 3028 Hickory Lodge Dr ($1,412K, T1-yield math but unverified label) and 3328 Smoky Ridge Way ($1,425K, $155,891/2024 documented). TN broker rosters remain reliable, no 403s.
NJ Shore (Belmar / OG / Bradley Beach)
Primary market went quiet in the worst way: 93 Heck Ave flipped back to PENDING — its 3rd status flip in 3 cycles — leaving the pipeline with zero confirmed-active Ocean Grove duplex plays (147 Webb Ave is also pending). 1611 River Road, Belmar is now flagged, not trusted: the only MLS record found for the address shows a SOLD closing that doesn't match the tracked $1.59M listing. 68 Mt Tabor Way re-confirmed active, unchanged. Compass fetched reliably this cycle; Zillow/Redfin/Jack Green Realty mostly 403'd.
Cape San Blas / Gulf FL
138 Cape Dunes + 654 Seacliff both re-confirmed active, unchanged. 110 Boardwalk Ave dropped after 2 full cycles with no clean source — likely an address transposition; 149 Boardwalk Ave ($599,900) is a plausible replacement flagged for next-cycle confirmation. 162 Cape Dunes Dr's "$200K+ 2025" claim remains unconfirmed marketing copy, no corroboration found. Coldwell Banker remains the reliable CSB source.
LBI
Genuine new find: 4505-4507 Ocean Blvd, Beach Haven — a true oceanfront two-family with $204,190 (2025 documented) income, but far over the size threshold ($1.25M+ down); tracked as awareness only. 20 W 87th St and 18 W 7th St Barnegat Light unchanged. Appreciation-overlay market (5%+); Ship Bottom and Surf City searches turned up no addressable qualifying inventory this cycle.